Only minor yield losses despite extreme weather conditions

Source: BMELV, Walkscreen

Agriculture is an open-air activity and does not take place in greenhouses - something that consumers and farmers are being reminded of very clearly this year. Extreme weather events between June and August have taken their toll on arable crops in particular.

Germany’s grain harvest this year amounts to a total of 43.8 million tons. This represents a drop of 12 per cent against last year’s bumper harvest. However, this year’s crop volume is still significantly higher than the 2003 and 2007 yields.

In addition to the extreme weather events, this year’s situation was exacerbated by the fact that the cultivated area was reduced by 3.9 per cent to 6.64 million hectares. Given the low producer prices of 2009, many farmers have opted for silage maize. In addition, yields per hectare were down by 8.5 per cent to an average of 65.9 qt/ha compared with 2009. Yield losses were lowest for winter barley, which, due to its early ripening, was not affected by the unsettled weather.

Varying grain harvest across the world

The average grain harvest for the EU 27 is expected to be around 279 million tons or about 5 per cent less than the previous year. The wheat harvest is about 127 million tons.
With a total of 1.75 billion tons for the business year 2010/11 – of which 646 million tons were made up by wheat - the global grain harvest is expected to fall short of the previous year's production by about 2 per cent, albeit at a high level. Yield losses have primarily occurred in Eastern European countries and in particular in Russia as a consequence of heat und fires. A good harvest is expected for the USA. In recent years, grain production has exceeded consumption. Even though global consumption is expected to further increase and outstrip production during this business year, there is no shortage of supply on the global agricultural markets because the most important producer and export countries still have significant stocks.

Detailed information on harvest and producer prices

23.6 million tons of winter wheat, the most important cereal by far, were harvested in Germany. This may represent a drop of 5.3 per cent compared with the previous year; however, sufficient quantities of high-quality wheat for food purposes (6 to 7 million tons are ground into flour) should again be available this year.

No supply problems are expected for rye, the second bread cereal, either, even though this year’s harvest of 2.8 million tons is a lot smaller (34.3 per cent) than in 2009 and also below the long-term average. Early threshed cereals are almost exclusively of bread rye quality. With the beginning of the bad weather period, losses of quality are inevitable but all in all it is not expected that they will threaten food needs. A growing share of rye is used for biofuel production.

Depending on the type of cereal, producer prices in Germany currently range between 50 and 100 per cent above the low levels of 2009. A quintal of bread wheat currently sells for EUR 19.58 (as of early September). Strong fluctuations on the markets make it difficult to make predictions on the future price development. Prices for feed cereals are likely to increase at a lower rate as the supply situation is less tense.
In 2010, the area under winter rape stabilised at 1.47 million hectares. Around 80 per cent of the production is already used in the non-food sector. Yields per hectare were 10 per cent below the record registered in 2009 but still within the long-term average. The crop volume of 5.71 million tons is above average, albeit one tenth lower than the previous year.

As for yields of late crops such as potatoes and sugar beet, the weather situation over the next weeks will be decisive. Yield losses compared with the previous year were recorded for strawberries, asparagus and cherries and are also expected for other species of fruit and vegetable. Lower yields of apples and pears are expected across Europe. 2009 is expected to be a good vintage for wine.